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M. Urban, U. Kluge, K.O. Plötner, G. Barbeito, S. Pickl, M. Hornung
The air transport system is characterised by a highly complex structure with multiple causalities and interactions between its stakeholders, such as passengers, airlines, airports, and aircraft manufacturers. In addition, external effects, e.g. the development of the fuel price or the population growth, influence the air transport system significantly. In order to gain a deeper understanding of the dynamics within the system and to analyse external effects on it, a comprehensive methodology is required to model such a complex structure. Thereby, the quantification of measures is essential. System Dynamics has been applied first to corporate processes as well as larger systems such as urban and global models in order to derive qualitative conclusions of how complex systems operate. The paper presents a specific System Dynamics model, representing the key relations between passengers, airlines, airports, and aircraft manufacturers. These four aviation stakeholders will be described based on their functions and objectives as well as on their interactions between each other in detail. This description includes, for example, decisions for airport runway and terminal expansions or decisions regarding the aircraft acquisition considering the operational performance of an airline. Furthermore, first numerical simulation results will be presented, including the development of revenue passenger kilometres and the number of aircraft required. The model focuses on air traffic within Europe as well as to or from Europe. Its overall structure enables an extension to a global level including all major aviation markets. The paper concludes with an overview of these next development steps.
Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress 2017, München
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn, 2017
21,0 x 29,7 cm, 12 Seiten
Stichworte zum Inhalt:
Air Transport System, System Dynamics