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C. Schinwald, M. Hornung
The global air transport system has seen significant growth rates over recent decades. The exponential increase in passenger numbers were only interrupted by periods of stagnation caused by the negative effects of unpredictable crises. In the future, the total number of aircraft movements is expected to grow further at rates between 4 and 5% per year. As seen in the past, the growth of the air transportation sector is highly asymmetric, which means that it varies strongly from region to region. This forecasted increase in demand is mainly caused by the augmented travel needs of the world's population and the rising wealth of its peoples. Because airports and, more precisely, the runway systems usually represent the bottleneck of the entire air transport system, this paper will focus on these elements. Due to local constraints, many airports haven't been able to expand their infrastructure at the same speed traffic has grown. Therefore, more and more airports are operating close to their maximum capacity. This development is confirmed by continuously increasing average delays. This paper demonstrates a methodical approach which allows the determining of the degree of capacity utilisation of an airport. The Basic Load Index (BLI) and the Peak Load Index (PLI) were defined as indicators for the capacity situation of an airport. The required parameters were calculated based on Official Airline Guide (OAG) data. This method was then applied to a selection of 75 European airports. The analysis revealed that the vast majority of airports have a low to medium capacity utilisation. Only a few airports face significant capacity constraints. The three airports with the highest capacity utilisation in 2012 were London Heathrow airport, Frankfurt airport and Istanbul Atatürk airport. The years 2008 and 2012 were compared in order to analyse the impact the Eurozone crises had on the capacity utilisation of the European airport system. It was possible to show that the overall capacity utilisation was slightly reduced between the years 2008 and 2012. Nevertheless, some airports developed in a manner totally contrary to the trend of the overall system. The best example of this is the Istanbul Atatürk Airport. Its traffic numbers went up nearly 40% during this period and caused a strong increase in capacity utilisation. Based on this study, further analysis taking the forecasted traffic growth numbers into account could reveal possible future bottlenecks of the global air transport system.
Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress 2014, Augsburg
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn, 2014
21,0 x 29,7 cm, 10 Seiten
Stichworte zum Inhalt:
Air Traffic Forecasts, Airport Capacity Utilisation, Capacity Constrained Airports, Capacity Coverage Charts