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M. Schaefer, M. Jung, H. Pabst
The expected growth of air traffic in the future poses significant challenges regarding aviation's environmental impact. Gaseous emissions from aircraft engines influence local air quality and climate. Ambitious goals regarding improvements in terms of fuel efficiency and specific emissions have been put into place in order to reach sustainable growth of the air traffic system. The current paper presents a forecast for fuel consumption, CO2 and NOx emissions of global air traffic. Simulation models of future aircraft and engine types are used in combination with assumptions about traffic growth, development of the aircraft fleet and operational aspects. Methodology and results of the model will be discussed, with a focus on the regional distribution of emissions in the present and in the future. The applied model consists of an automated chain of software modules covering engine and aircraft simulation, flight mission analysis, air traffic emissions and emissions forecasting. Aircraft models from the EUROCONTROL BADA database are used by the flight mission module, supplemented by additional models representing aircraft of the near future. The air traffic module, which is based on historical flight schedules, determines fuel burn and emissions in a "bottom-up" approach, i.e. by simulating each individual flight. Inefficiencies due to Air Traffic Management (ATM) are accounted for. A forecast module predicts future emissions based on flight movements for a base year, regional traffic growth and simulation models of future aircraft types. The forecast model includes a fleet rollover simulation, which accounts for the retirement of old aircraft and the introduction of new aircraft into the fleet. Three-dimensional inventories of emissions have been created by linking the model to specialized software available at DLR. Results can be used to assess the environmental footprint of aviation and its potential impact on climate. The results presented in this paper cover fuel burn and emissions of scheduled air traffic for the years 2000 until 2010 and a forecast of emissions until the year 2030. In addition, evaluations by world region are performed, showing e.g. the impact of the above-average traffic growth in Asia compared to lower growth rates for Europe and the US. Results are validated against reference data including simulation results from ICAO and international research projects.
Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress 2013, Stuttgart
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn, 2013
21,0 x 29,7 cm, 11 Seiten
Stichworte zum Inhalt:
air traffic, emissions, fleet, forecast, fuel consumption