S.K. Flegel, J. Gelhaus, C. Wiedemann, M. Möckel, P. Vörsmann

In order to estimate the risk for satellites to collide with space debris or meteoroids, software is used which simulates earths particulate environment. The underlying population represents the core of these programs. It is established via a fusion process which combines measurement data with simulation data. With time, knowledge of the space debris environment increases so that the population can be refined. ESAs Meteoroid and Space Debris Terrestrial Environment Reference (MASTER) Model is one of the most widely used programs which serves this purpose. In the frame of the contract "Maintenance of the ESA MASTER Model," the entire historical population up to the year 2005 was revised. The history was extended up to May 1st, 2009 and predictions of the future evolution were updated according to current trends. The current paper compares the population of the MASTER-2005 model with that of the new MASTER- 2009 model. Changes in the representation of the historical population evolution are discussed which result from revised modeling of independent debris sources. The newly established population between May 2005 and May 2009 is then compared to the predictions of MASTER-2005. An emphasis is put on the validation of the method which is used in deriving the traffic definitions of the business-as-usual scenario. Initial results for the future debris population evolution conclude this paper.

Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress 2010

Conference Paper

englisch

21,0 x 29,7 cm, 10 Seiten

Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress Tagungsband - Manuskripte, 2010, 2010, ; S.1291-1300; 2010; Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn

NA

Bestellbar

2010