F. Tessun, M. Doerr, H. Preissler, A. Becker

The complexity of Air Transport calls for new ways of planning and researching into the future. Because of its multitude of interdependencies and interactions, this system cannot be coped with solely by the application of conventional forecasting methods. In the following, the global approach adopted at Daimler-Benz Aerospace is described. This approach comprises a description of the way the system "Air Transport" exists as a network, deriving alternative future prospects for the year 2015. To us, the scenario technique methodology would appear to be the tool best suited to achieve this. This article gives a rough description of the technique and presents two possible scenarios. These scenarios serve as a frame within which to develop strategies. An important conclusion from this work was that in the "Air Transport" system it is not possible to apply the main factors influencing the industry as direct controlling factors. Air Transport is heavily dependent on the global economic conditions and the political framework that exists.

9th European Aerospace Congress; Berlin; 1996

Conference Paper

englisch

21,0 x 29,7 cm, 17 Seiten

DGLR-Bericht, 1996, 1996-01, 9th European Aerospace Congress - Proceedings; S.261-277; 1996; Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn

NA

air transportation

Bestellbar

1996