J. Berling, A. Lau, V. Gollnick

The complexity of European Air Traffic is accompanied by a continuous risk of conflicts between aircraft. In particular, inaccurate forecasts of aircraft positions prevent a fail-proof prediction of conflicts, especially for large look-ahead times. Uncertainty of departure times is one of the most important factors in trajectory prediction. Therefore, we compute strategic conflict probabilities between planned trajectories with stochastic departure times. First, potentially conflicted flight pairs are geometrically identified and further interpreted to gain critical periods of time in which conflicts would materialize with a given probability. Conflict probabilities of planned trajectories of a complete daily traffic sample are calculated. Results dissect the dependency of conflict probabilities on departure time deviations and on conflict geometry. Finally, an upper bound of strategic conflict reduction by strategic time shifts is computed.

Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress 2016, Braunschweig

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn, 2016

Conference Paper

englisch

21,0 x 29,7 cm, 7 Seiten

urn:nbn:de:101:1-2016102110899

air traffic management, conflict probabilities

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21.10.2016